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☆ Fiscal rules revamp may threaten calm in euro zone's fragile bond markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Analysts believe Germany's budget crisis will mean tougher fiscal policy in the largest euro zone economy in 2024, which could add to pressure on less wealthy members of the bloc to keep a tighter grip on their finances. Italian 10-year bonds currently yield around 173 basis points more than German debt , 38 bps less than a year ago, while the gap between Portuguese and German yields has narrowed by 34 basis points. French bonds meanwhile yield 58 bps more than German, 5 bps more than a year ago. Analysts argued the German public may be unwilling to accept a tightening of domestic fiscal policy without a blanket approach across Europe - meaning a tougher scenario for the periphery. Bondholders are meanwhile banking on the European Central Bank cutting interest rates in a few months, which should support euro zone peripheral debt.

Persons: Giorgia Meloni, Olaf Scholz, Fabrizio Bensch, Ruben Segura, BofA's Segura, Cayuela, Felix Hubner, Massimiliano Maxia, Stefano Rebaudo, Catherine Evans Organizations: Italian, REUTERS, Germany, Union, Northern, European Commission, UBS, Analysts, European Central Bank, JPMorgan, ECB, Allianz Global Investors, bps, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Italy, Cayuela, European, Greece, Spain, Europe

ECB chief Christine Lagarde may stick with the high-for-longer mantra that has pushed up long-dated bond yields. A weakening economy meanwhile suggests the need for further tightening is limited but the ECB is likely to push back against rate-cut speculation. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the ECB will need time, possibly until next spring, before it can be confident that inflation is coming down. The ECB expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2% in 2024 from an average of 5.6% in 2023. Oil price moves, inflation outlook shifts4/ What does the ECB do if things go wrong with Italy?

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Johanna Geron, Francis Yared, Philip Lane, Lagarde, PEPP, Reinhard Cluse, Chris Jeffrey, Cluse, ING's Brzeski, Dhara Ranasinghe, Stefano Rebaudo, Naomi Rovnick, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, REUTERS, ECB, Deutsche Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Europe, United States, Italy, Germany

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. "It's such a close call between the pause and the rate hike," said ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski. Traders are torn but favour an ECB pause, pricing in around a 40% chance of a hike. For many economists, one thing is clear: if the ECB has further tightening to deliver, September is likely its last chance. Even the hawks, keeping a hike on the table, say fresh ECB projections on Thursday are key to the decision.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Reinhard Cluse, Mario Centeno, Isabel Schnabel, Austria's Robert Holzmann, Iain Stealey, Philip Lane, Kaspar Hense, Yoruk Bahceli, Stefano Rebaudo, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Central Bank, Traders, UBS, JPMorgan Asset Management, Reuters, ING, BlueBay Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy

☆ Money markets cut Sep ECB rate hike bets after German PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Traders on Wednesday scaled back bets for a September interest rate hike in the euro area following much weaker-than-expected business activity data from Germany, Europe's biggest economy. Money market futures now price just a 40% chance of a quarter point rate hike from the European Central Bank next month, compared with roughly a 60% chance priced in ahead of the data . German business activity contracted at the fastest pace for more than three years in August, a preliminary survey showed on Wednesday. Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; editing by Dhara RanasingheOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Stefano Rebaudo, Dhara Organizations: Traders, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Germany, Europe's

Euro zone interest rates have risen 400 basis points in the last year to 3.5%, their highest in 22 years, and are now close to peaking as headline inflation cools and the economy weakens. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates? "The ECB will hike again and anything else would be a major surprise," said RBC Capital Markets global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ When does the ECB expect core inflation to fall? Euro zone business activity stalled in June as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient services sector barely grew.

Persons: Silvia Ardagna, Peter Schaffrik, Christine, Lagarde, Massimiliano Maxia, Reinhard Cluse, Ruben Segura, BofA, Philip Lane, BofA's Segura, Naomi Rovnick, Stefano Rebaudo, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Kripa Jayaram, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Barclays, ECB, Capital, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, U.S . Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Bank, Thomson Locations: Cayuela, Europe, London, Milan

☆ Analysis: Greek bonds snapping at heels of southern Europe's best in class
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The country has received three international bailouts from the euro zone and the IMF worth 280 billion euros ($308 billion) since 2010. "The Greek (bond) market is not so liquid and tends to be more volatile, but we have a lot of good news. The Greek economy is still heavily exposed to volatile sectors like tourism or shipping, but it is less sensitive to manufacturing headwinds. The premium, or spread, of Greek government bond yields over those of Spain recently fell to its lowest since 2008 at around 27 basis points . Across southern Europe, only Portugal and Spain trade at a smaller premium to Germany - the euro zone benchmark - than Greece.

Persons: Athanasios, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Goldman Sachs, Filippo Taddei, Piet Haines Christiansen, Giorgia Meloni, Mario Draghi's, Christoph Rieger, Stefano Rebaudo, Sara Rossi, Amanda Cooper, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Bank of America, Democracy, Analysts, European Recovery Fund, Danske Bank, Italy's, ECB, Italian Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Greece, Spain, Europe, Portugal, Germany, European, Italy, Italian

LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - Inflation in the euro area is too high for comfort, meaning markets expect the European Central Bank to deliver its seventh straight interest rate hike on Thursday. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates by on Thursday? Most analysts expect at least one more rate move after Thursday, even as the Federal Reserve looks set to pause its rate hike campaign. Market pricing suggests ECB rates will peak around 3.6% this year, and Belgium's central bank governor Pierre Wunsch says he wouldn't be surprised to see rates rise to 4%. Tuesday's bank lending should offer some clues but it might be too early to gauge the full impact of the March banking crisis on financing conditions.

☆ ECB market rate bets: still some unfinished business for the hawks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Having firmly scaled-back rate expectations amid last month's market turmoil, investors no longer expect borrowing costs to stay higher for longer and are cautious about pricing in a deposit rate above 4%. The November 2023 ECB euro short-term rate (ESTR) forward rose to 3.65% on Wednesday, implying expectations for a deposit rate of around 3.75%. Citi meanwhile argued that the June ESTR or money market contract was less appealing from a hedging standpoint while markets were pricing a peak of 3.75%. bundfuturevolBut Bund futures volumes declined after March 15 as markets once more revised their rate expectations upwards. This means that the smaller the gap between the current benchmark rate and the expected rate, the lower the volatility, and vice versa.

March 28 (Reuters) - Immediate investor concerns over the banking sector eased on Tuesday, lifting stock prices, with the European Central Bank's supervisory chief saying recent sector volatility underscored the need to step up regulatory scrutiny. Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) shares rose 1.7%. Top U.S. banking regulators said on Monday they planned to tell Congress that the overall financial system remains on a solid footing after recent bank failures, but will comprehensively review their policies in a bid to prevent future collapses. Regional U.S. lender First Citizens BancShares on Monday scooped up the assets of SVB, in a vote of confidence for the battered banking sector that prompted a rally in bank shares. Bailey said the stresses which led to a crisis in confidence in Credit Suisse were down to specific issues in Switzerland's second-largest bank.

March 13 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields tumbled on Monday as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) sent investors rushing into safe-haven assets and caused traders to bet on a smaller rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. SVB's collapse sparked a massive rally in European and global bond markets on Monday. The German 2-year bond yield was last down 34 basis points (bps) at 2.746%, on track for its biggest one-day drop since 1995. Market pricing showed traders thought a 25 bp hike is now the more likely outcome, despite 50 bps appearing almost certain last week. The European Central Bank is not planning an emergency meeting of its banking supervisory board on Monday after the collapse of SVB, a senior source told Reuters.

☆ Euro area bond yields tumble as SVB collapse scares investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

March 13 (Reuters) - Government bond yields fell on Monday as investors rushed into safe-haven assets while assessing the possible fallout from Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) collapse amid bets on less aggressive tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The European Central Bank is not planning an emergency meeting of its banking supervisory board on Monday after the collapse of SVB, a senior source told Reuters. European stocks fell on Monday and were on course for their worst day in almost three months, as the region's banking shares continued to tumble. Fed funds futures showed traders scaled back their projections for the Fed's next rate rise, but markets still bet on a less than 50% chance of a 25 bps rate hike next week. ESTR forwards currently imply an 80% chance of a 50 bps rate hike next week.

Markets have ramped up bets on further rate increases after the ECB has already tightened monetary policy by 3 percentage points since July. ECB President Christine Lagarde reckons a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike "is very, very likely". "The ECB is prioritising getting policy rates as high as needed and nothing else is as important," Pictet Wealth Management's head of macroeconomic research Frederik Ducrozet, said. Signs of economic resilience suggest ECB growth forecasts, also out on Thursday, could be revised upwards for 2023. Falling energy prices and a stronger euro, up around 6% in trade-weighted terms from August lows, suggest headline inflation forecasts could be revised lower.

☆ Analysis: Governments could find avid buyers for record bond sales as ECB rates peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

March 8 (Reuters) - Investors have rapidly revised up their expectations for euro zone interest rates, but with a peak now in sight, governments might find it much easier to allocate record bond sales thanks to a cocktail of attractive yields and available liquidity. Traders are confident the ECB will have a smooth start to unwinding its huge bond holdings, a process known as quantitative tightening (QT). Bond demand is set to accelerate as markets increasingly price in a peak for yields. “The euro area keeps having excess liquidity and is able to fund smoothly the government bond supply expected for this year,” said Erjon Satko, rates strategist at BofA. Some analysts say that no matter what national treasuries do, they will relieve the pressure of record bond supply.

☆ Unexpected inflation jump adds to ECB headache
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, jumped to its highest level since 2011 at 2.66% as traders ramped up bets that ECB rates will peak around 4% at year-end. Expectations for the peak in ECB rates have risen by over 40 basis points this month on fears that inflation will be more persistent than expected, particularly for core goods that exclude volatile fuel and food prices. Some investors even think there is a risk of the ECB raising rates by more than 50 basis points in March, despite its explicit guidance for the move. "The February data shows that French inflation has not reached its peak yet," ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier said. In Spain, core inflation also accelerated, adding to the ECB's worries that price growth is becoming persistent.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking in Davos recently, stressed the need for monetary policy to "stay the course." "There were questions recently about why markets don't understand what the ECB will do next," said ING's Brzeski. With updated ECB projections not out until March, Lagarde is likely to be pressed on how the ECB views core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. The ECB targets headline inflation at 2%, but officials are focused on a core measure. Reuters Graphics5/ Is the ECB more upbeat on the growth outlook?

☆ Euro zone bond yields jump a day after hawkish ECB
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Dec 16 (Reuters) - Euro zone borrowing costs rose on Friday as investors revised their forecasts for bond yields after the European Central Bank pledged further monetary tightening to fight inflation. Germany's 10-year government bond yield , the benchmark of the bloc, touched 2.208% on Friday, its highest in a month, and was last up 8 basis points at 2.17%. The gap between 2-year and 10-year yields was at -28.5 bps after briefly hitting its lowest since 1992 at -41.9 bps. The yield spread was at 1 bp after falling into negative territory to as low as -15 bps. Rohan Khanna head of European and UK rates at UBS forecast the Italian-German yield spread in the 200-250 bps range in 2023.

Headline inflation slowed in November for the first time in 1-1/2 years, to 10%, raising hopes that sky-high price growth has passed. ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely be careful about calling a peak after last year's "big mistake" of insisting surging prices were "transitory," said Pictet's Ducrozet. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reckons wages would be a "primary driver" of price inflation even after energy price shocks fade. Closely-watched business activity data points to a mild recession and latest forecasts should show how the ECB views the coming slowdown. Lane believes record price growth will start to subside next year.

Nov 28 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields were higher on Monday after rare protests in China over the country's strict zero-COVID policies clouded the outlook for global growth and inflation. "The market is more concerned about the impact on inflation than the impact on growth," he added. Germany's 10-year government bond yield was up 4 basis points (bps) at 2.008%, after rising 12 bps on Friday. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year government bond yields rose to -20 bps. Italy's 10-year yield rose 8 bps to 3.94% pushing the closely watched spread between Italian and German 10-year yields wider by 5 bps to 191 bps.

☆ Sterling edges up against weakening dollar after UK GDP data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 11 (Reuters) - Sterling edged higher against a weakening dollar on Friday after British economic data came in stronger than expected. "UK GDP monthly and quarterly data early this morning are helping GBP-USD hold the line at around 1.17," Unicredit analysts said. Investors poured into risky assets after Thursday’s U.S. inflation data, sending the dollar tumbling and U.S. Treasury yields to a five-week low. Sunak suggested a squeeze on public spending and potentially higher taxes in a move that could further weaken the economy. Investors are also waiting for jobs data due next week, which might provide further cues about potential inflation second-round effects.

Investors will also look to ECB boss Christine Lagarde for guidance on how the ECB views the trade-off between recession risks and inflation, and when it might pause tightening. Economists say it's too early to call a peak in inflation but the chances of one arriving soon are growing. While an inflation peak may be close if there are no additional shocks from the war in Ukraine, the retreat will be slow initially, ECB policymaker Bostjan Vasle believes. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/ Is the ECB giving away cash to banks and what will it do about it? Aggressive rate hikes from major central banks and a rout in British bonds have sparked concern about financial instability.

Oct 10 (Reuters) - German government bond yields jumped while yield spreads between core and periphery tightened on Monday after a media report saying Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz supported joint-debt issuances to tackle the energy crisis. Italy's 10-year bond yield fell 2.5 bps to 4.67% , with the spread between Italian and German 10-year yield tightening to 233 bps . Bond yields edged lower earlier in the session after blasts rocked the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities, prompting a move into traditional safe-haven assets such as core government bonds. Euro zone bond yields had jumped on Friday after strong U.S. jobs data dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes. Among euro zone bond sales, the European Union has mandated banks for a 20-year benchmark bond and a tap of its December 2029 bond, scheduled to be launched tomorrow, according to a memo seen by Reuters.

☆ Euro zone bond yields rise, focus on UK gilts, inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sept 29 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields rose on Thursday as German data shifted the market focus to surging inflation, while gilt investors resumed selling after the Bank of England (BoE) stepped in to quell a storm the day before. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterGermany's 10-year government bond yield , the benchmark of the bloc, rose 11 basis points (bps) to 2.25%. The UK 10-year gilt yield rose 16 bps to 4.16%, after falling almost 50 bps the day before. Italy's 10-year government bond yield rose 9 bps to 4.67%, after hitting its highest level since February 2013 at 4.927% the day before. Analysts said that while Italian politics do not affect the bond market much, the main worries for Italian bond investors are a possible quantitative tightening by the ECB and a further rise in inflation across the euro area.

☆ Euro zone yields fall from multi-year highs tracking UK gilts
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sept 28 (Reuters) - Euro zone borrowing costs fell on Wednesday, tracking moves in British gilts, after hitting multi-year highs amid monetary tightening expectations and concerns about potentially growing bond supply due to more public spending. The euro area bond market has recently trailed yields in British gilts, which recorded their sharpest rise in decades in response to new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng's tax cuts and borrowing plans. The German yield curve steepened after being close to inversion last week, with the gap between 2- and 10-year yields hitting an almost 3-week high of 42.7 bps. The jump of yields in British gilts also widened yield spreads between core and peripheral government bonds. gilt&spreadItaly's 10-year bond yield was down 13 bps to 4.6%, after hitting its highest since February 2013 at 4.927%, with the spread between Italian and German 10-year yields tightening to 243 bps.

☆ Italy's right-wing bloc wins election: five questions for markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Guglielmo MangiapaneMILAN/LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Italy's right-wing bloc should have a solid majority in both houses of parliament following Sunday's election, potentially giving the country a rare chance of political stability after years of upheaval and fragile coalitions. The absence of the anti-euro rhetoric seen in the 2018 election had reassured investors in the run-up to the vote. With markets watching closely, we take a look at five key questions on the radar. Reuters Graphics2/ Could Italy's EU funding plan be modified? The Brothers of Italy sees room to amend Italy's EU-backed recovery fund programme to account for the energy shock.

☆ Euro zone yields at multi-year highs, Italian bonds underperform
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterSept 26 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields jumped to multi-year highs amid expectations that central banks will keep tightening their monetary policy despite recession risks and a new sell-off in British gilts. Meanwhile, the spread between Italian and German yields widened after the rightist coalition won a clear majority in Sunday's elections. Italian bond (BTP) prices are also more susceptible to shifts in interest rate expectations, given the country's vast debt burden. Giorgia Meloni looks set to become Italy's first woman prime minister at the head of its most right-wing government since World War Two. "Bond yields across Europe are correlated, and today's jump in Britain yields is again affecting the euro area," he added.

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